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Barrel economics

What one barrel of Russian crude actually nets — and, separately, the budget subsidy that props refiners up.

Netback calculator

netback = Urals − freight − insurance
Urals = Brent − discount
Netback (realised) 46.7InsuranceFreightUrals discount
Brent (live feed) ●97.95 $/bbl
live: 97.95 $/bbl · drag for a what-if oil price; default = live
Urals discount29.22 $/bblCREA (realized, western)
Urals68.7 $/bbl
Freight21.0 $/bbl
range 8.0–35.0 · modelled estimate — drag within the range · CREA/KSE + owner OSINT (elevated after 2026 tanker sanctions)
Insurance1.0 $/bbl
range 0.5–2.5 · modelled estimate — drag within the range
Netback (realised)46.7 $/bbl

Brent defaults to a live market feed; the Urals discount comes from CREA's realized export price to its western buyers (India, Turkey), not a hand guess; freight and insurance are modelled estimates. Drag any slider and it becomes a what-if scenario, not a fact. The netback is indicative, not live.


Budget drain

A budget subsidy to refiners — NOT a per-barrel cost. Shown separately on purpose.

Fuel damper payouts
1.5 trln ₽
≈ 18 $ bln · Apr–Aug 2026
≈30% of oil & gas revenue
Reverse excise on crude (latest month)
98.2 bn ₽
2026-09
Federal budget deficit (YTD)
5.19 ₽ trn
as of 2026-11-06
Oil & gas revenue / mo
452 ₽ bn/mo
as of 2026-11-06
Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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