A composite estimate of proximity to systemic crisis. 180 indicators across 56 industries in 10 sectors — sector → industry → indicator. A daily market core updates automatically; the rest by each source's release frequency. The hand moves both ways.
Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown: 19 sec to midnight · High pressure · index 72/100
Accumulated stress is high, financial and resource buffers are thinning, but the system is still manageable.
The Russia Collapse Index currently reads 72/100 across 180 indicators. It measures accumulated pressure on the economy, not a prediction: the higher the score, the closer the most stressed sectors are to their calibrated crisis points.
It is an open-data composite of 180 indicators in 10 sectors — oil and gas, budget, banks, industry, war losses, sanctions and society. Each indicator is mapped to a 0–100 stress score, aggregated by sector and amplified for systemic links. Data are updated daily; expert estimates are labelled as such.
The pressure is real but uneven. Oil still earns money (Urals tax price 92.08 $/bbl), yet the budget runs a 5.19 ₽ trn deficit, pays oil companies 403.7 ₽ bn/mo a month through the damper and reverse excise, and has drawn the liquid National Wealth Fund down to 3.8 ₽ trn. See the budget and buyers pages for the numbers.
The largest confirmed buyers in the latest CREA window are China (€9.4 bn), India (€4.6 bn), Türkiye (€0.9 bn). The Buyers page breaks purchases down by country and fuel.
Market and tracker data update every day. Monthly statistics are entered when published, and expert 0–100 estimates are reviewed weekly. Every indicator page shows its source, method, confidence and last update.