← Back to overview
🌐ENUKRU
Home › Foreign trade & sanctions › Energy exports › Russian crude price to China (ESPO)

Russian crude price to China (ESPO)

● measuredauto
Current value
100.84$/bbl
Stress
0/100
How the 0–100 is derived
now: 100.84 $/bbl
norm · 80 $/bbl · 0100 · 45 $/bbl · crisis

Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.

Analysis

Russian crude price to China (ESPO) currently reads 100.84 $/bbl, mapping to a stress of 0/100 — well inside the calm zone.

Across the tracked period the stress has eased by 16.6 points.

The value is sourced via official statistics; confidence — medium. How it is derived: CREA (auto): FOB realized value of crude to China — a proxy for the ESPO-dominated eastern price, not the Argus ESPO quote.

Trend
010Stress 0–10020.0930.0909.1019.1028.1006.112026-09-20: 16.616.62026-09-21: 002026-09-22: 02026-09-23: 02026-09-24: 02026-09-26: 02026-09-27: 02026-09-28: 02026-09-29: 02026-09-30: 02026-10-01: 02026-10-02: 02026-10-03: 02026-10-04: 02026-10-05: 02026-10-06: 02026-10-07: 02026-10-08: 02026-10-09: 02026-10-10: 02026-10-11: 02026-10-12: 02026-10-13: 02026-10-14: 02026-10-15: 02026-10-16: 02026-10-17: 02026-10-18: 02026-10-19: 02026-10-20: 02026-10-21: 02026-10-22: 02026-10-23: 02026-10-24: 02026-10-25: 02026-10-26: 02026-10-27: 02026-10-28: 02026-10-29: 02026-10-30: 02026-10-31: 02026-11-01: 02026-11-02: 02026-11-03: 02026-11-04: 02026-11-05: 02026-11-06: 00
Recent changes in this indicator
DateValueStress
2026-11-06100.84 $/bbl0
2026-11-0597.01 $/bbl0
2026-11-0495.17 $/bbl0
2026-11-0394.22 $/bbl0
2026-11-0290.92 $/bbl0
2026-11-0190.98 $/bbl0
2026-10-3189.37 $/bbl0
2026-10-3087.91 $/bbl0
2026-10-2987.79 $/bbl0
2026-10-2887.05 $/bbl0
2026-10-2785.65 $/bbl0
2026-10-2585.49 $/bbl0
Method
Method
official data
Confidence
medium
Sources
CREA
as of
2026-11-06
Part of sector
Foreign trade & sanctions
Indicators in this sector

Foreign trade & sanctions →

Lengthening cross-border payments73Shadow-fleet share of oil exports73Dependence on yuan/China settlements66Third-country bank payment refusals65Tighter export controls (dual-use)65Current-account balance63Stuck export revenue (rupees/yuan)61Seaborne crude exports to China (ESPO)60New sanctions packages/listings60Parallel-import markup/failures58Re-export via Turkey/Central Asia58Imports from China (mirror stats)57Trade concentration on China56Urals-to-Brent discount47
Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
Found an error or have a suggestion to improve the site? Write to us: russiacollapseindex@gmail.com