Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.
Shadow-fleet share of oil exports currently reads 70 %, mapping to a stress of 73/100 — elevated pressure, toward the crisis end of its scale.
Across the tracked period the stress has held roughly flat (+0.0 pts).
The value is sourced via official statistics; confidence — medium. How it is derived: KSE/CREA: rising share evades the price cap but adds interdiction risk.
History is accumulating since launch — a chart appears once enough daily readings pile up.
| Period | % of seaborne oil exports | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 60 | 54 |
| 2026-01 | 47.7 | 32 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Obozrevatel/KSE — >60% of seaborne oil via shadow fleet (2024) · NV — 47.7% sanctioned tankers (Baltic, Jan 2026)