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Grain harvest forecast

● measuredmanual
Current value
132.6mln t
Stress
5/100
How the 0–100 is derived
now: 132.6 mln t
norm · 135 mln t · 0100 · 90 mln t · crisis

Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.

Analysis

Grain harvest forecast currently reads 132.6 mln t, mapping to a stress of 5/100 — well inside the calm zone.

Across the tracked period the stress has eased by 32.5 points.

The value is sourced via official statistics; confidence — medium. How it is derived: IKAR/SovEcon estimates of the crop; below record years.

Trend
2040Stress 0–10031.0816.0930.0912.1025.1006.112026-08-31: 38382026-09-04: 382026-09-05: 382026-09-07: 382026-09-08: 382026-09-09: 382026-09-10: 382026-09-11: 382026-09-12: 382026-09-13: 382026-09-14: 382026-09-15: 382026-09-16: 382026-09-17: 382026-09-18: 382026-09-19: 552026-09-20: 52026-09-21: 52026-09-22: 52026-09-23: 52026-09-24: 52026-09-26: 52026-09-27: 52026-09-28: 52026-09-29: 52026-09-30: 52026-10-01: 52026-10-02: 52026-10-03: 52026-10-04: 52026-10-05: 52026-10-06: 52026-10-07: 52026-10-08: 52026-10-09: 52026-10-10: 52026-10-11: 52026-10-12: 52026-10-13: 52026-10-14: 52026-10-15: 52026-10-16: 52026-10-17: 52026-10-18: 52026-10-19: 52026-10-20: 52026-10-21: 52026-10-22: 52026-10-23: 52026-10-24: 52026-10-25: 52026-10-26: 52026-10-27: 52026-10-28: 52026-10-29: 52026-10-30: 52026-10-31: 52026-11-01: 52026-11-02: 52026-11-03: 52026-11-04: 52026-11-05: 52026-11-06: 55
Recent changes in this indicator
DateValueStress
2026-09-19132.6 mln t5
2026-08-31118 mln t38

Historical context (reconstructed)

120140160mln t (grain harvest, gross)20192021202220242025current (RCI)2019: 1211212020: 1342021: 1212022: 1581582023: 1452024: 1242025: 1412026 (forecast): 139current (RCI): 118118
Range: 118–157.6 mln t (grain harvest, gross)Latest: 118 mln t (grain harvest, gross)Peak: current (RCI) (38)
Stress over time (0–100)
02550751000–10020192021202220242025current (RCI)2019: 31312020: 32021: 302022: 002023: 02024: 232025: 02026 (forecast): 0current (RCI): 3838
Periodmln t (grain harvest, gross)Stress
2019121.231
2020133.53
2021121.430
2022157.60
2023144.90
2024124.523
2025141.20
2026 (forecast)1390
current (RCI)11838

Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Rosstat / IKAR-SovEcon grain harvest (2019) · Rosstat / IKAR-SovEcon grain harvest (2020)

Method
Method
official data
Confidence
medium
Sources
ИКАР/СовЭкон
as of
2026-10-29
Part of sector
Agriculture & food
Indicators in this sector

Agriculture & food →

Farm diesel availability72Farm profitability72Risk to the harvest (fuel/weather)70Grain exports (duties, logistics)68Wheat price, class 3 (Centre)64Grain export logistics58Farm machinery wear (parts shortage)58Shortage of vet drugs/genetics (imports)58Share of loss-making farms58Grain export shortfall (estimate)57Livestock & poultry output49Oilseeds & sugar output26Winter sowing plan for the 2027 crop25
Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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