Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.
This is an expert 0–100 estimate read from the news flow — a judgement call, not a measured figure. Treat it as a signal, not a statistic.
Grain export shortfall (estimate) currently reads 17 mln t, mapping to a stress of 57/100 — moderate pressure.
Across the tracked period the stress has held roughly flat (+0.0 pts).
The value is sourced via a forward projection; confidence — low. How it is derived: ProZerno: 14–20 mln t of grain may stay unexported and weigh on domestic prices; interventions cover only ~15–20% of it.
History is accumulating since launch — a chart appears once enough daily readings pile up.