Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.
Grain exports (duties, logistics) currently reads 68 % of record, mapping to a stress of 68/100 — elevated pressure, toward the crisis end of its scale.
Across the tracked period the stress has risen by 10.0 points.
The value is sourced via official statistics; confidence — medium. How it is derived: OSINT/partner customs; export duties and logistics weigh on volumes.
| Date | Value | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 68 % of record | 68 |
| 2026-08-31 | 72 % of record | 58 |
| Period | mln t (grain exports) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 38.1 | 98 |
| 2022/23 | 59.3 | 21 |
| 2023/24 | 68.4 | 0 |
| 2024/25 | 53 | 44 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: FTS via Finam — 2021/22 grain exports 38.1 mln t · industry forecast/actual ~59.3 mln t