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Crude output (vs OPEC+ quota)

● measuredmanual
Current value
8.95mln bbl/day
Stress
47/100
How the 0–100 is derived
now: 8.95 mln bbl/day
norm · 9.8 mln bbl/day · 0100 · 8 mln bbl/day · crisis

Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.

Analysis

Crude output (vs OPEC+ quota) currently reads 8.95 mln bbl/day, mapping to a stress of 47/100 — moderate pressure.

Across the tracked period the stress has risen by 2.8 points.

The value is sourced via official statistics; confidence — medium. How it is derived: OPEC/IEA figures; constrained by quotas and field conditions.

Trend
454647Stress 0–10031.0816.0930.0912.1025.1006.112026-08-31: 44.444.42026-09-04: 44.42026-09-05: 44.42026-09-07: 44.42026-09-08: 44.42026-09-09: 44.42026-09-10: 44.42026-09-11: 44.42026-09-12: 44.42026-09-13: 44.42026-09-14: 44.42026-09-15: 44.42026-09-16: 44.42026-09-17: 44.42026-09-18: 44.42026-09-19: 47.247.22026-09-20: 47.22026-09-21: 47.22026-09-22: 47.22026-09-23: 47.22026-09-24: 47.22026-09-26: 47.22026-09-27: 47.22026-09-28: 47.22026-09-29: 47.22026-09-30: 47.22026-10-01: 47.22026-10-02: 47.22026-10-03: 47.22026-10-04: 47.22026-10-05: 47.22026-10-06: 47.22026-10-07: 47.22026-10-08: 47.22026-10-09: 47.22026-10-10: 47.22026-10-11: 47.22026-10-12: 47.22026-10-13: 47.22026-10-14: 47.22026-10-15: 47.22026-10-16: 47.22026-10-17: 47.22026-10-18: 47.22026-10-19: 47.22026-10-20: 47.22026-10-21: 47.22026-10-22: 47.22026-10-23: 47.22026-10-24: 47.22026-10-25: 47.22026-10-26: 47.22026-10-27: 47.22026-10-28: 47.22026-10-29: 47.22026-10-30: 47.22026-10-31: 47.22026-11-01: 47.22026-11-02: 47.22026-11-03: 47.22026-11-04: 47.22026-11-05: 47.22026-11-06: 47.247.2
Recent changes in this indicator
DateValueStress
2026-09-198.95 mln bbl/day47
2026-08-319 mln bbl/day44

Historical context (reconstructed)

9.51010.5mln bbl/day202120232024202420252021: 10.5410.542023: 9.69.62024: 9.29.22024: 10.5310.532025: 10.5310.53
Range: 9.2–10.54 mln bbl/dayLatest: 10.53 mln bbl/dayPeak: 2024 (33)
Stress over time (0–100)
02550751000–100202120232024202420252021: 002023: 11112024: 33332024: 002025: 00
Periodmln bbl/dayStress
202110.540
20239.611
20249.233
202410.530
202510.530

Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: nestcentre — 2021 oil output 525 Mt = 10.54 mln b/d (incl. condensate) · EIA — Russia 2023 crude oil 9.6 mln b/d

Method
Method
official data
Confidence
medium
Sources
ОПЕК/МЭА
as of
2026-10-29
Part of sector
Extractive industry
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Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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