Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.
Seaborne crude exports currently reads 3.21 mln bbl/day, mapping to a stress of 32/100 — modest pressure.
Across the tracked period the stress has risen by 32.5 points. Day-over-day: +8.3 pts.
The value is sourced via official statistics; confidence — medium. How it is derived: CREA tracker of tanker flows; sensitive to refinery strikes and sanctions.
| Date | Value | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | 3.21 mln bbl/day | 32 |
| 2026-11-05 | 3.31 mln bbl/day | 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | 3.34 mln bbl/day | 22 |
| 2026-11-03 | 3.4 mln bbl/day | 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | 3.52 mln bbl/day | 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | 3.46 mln bbl/day | 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | 3.15 mln bbl/day | 38 |
| 2026-10-30 | 3.2 mln bbl/day | 33 |
| 2026-10-29 | 3.25 mln bbl/day | 29 |
| 2026-10-28 | 3.43 mln bbl/day | 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | 3.55 mln bbl/day | 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | 3.51 mln bbl/day | 8 |
| Period | mln bbl/day (seaborne crude) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-03 | 3.8 | 0 |
| 2025-09 | 3.77 | 0 |
| 2025-10 | 4.11 | 0 |
| 2026-YTD | 3.49 | 9 |
| 2026-07 | 4.21 | 0 |
| 2026-09 | 3.54 | 5 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Kommersant/Forbes — seaborne crude exports Mar 2024 3.8 mln b/d (+5% YoY) · S&P Global — seaborne crude 3.77 mln b/d (Sep 2025)