Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.
This is a year-on-year rate of change, not the absolute level — a level can stay high while its change reads as high stress.
Fertilizer exports to China (mirror) currently reads 15 % YoY, mapping to a stress of 0/100 — well inside the calm zone.
Across the tracked period the stress has held roughly flat (+0.0 pts).
The value is sourced via mirror-trade data; confidence — high. How it is derived: China customs: fertilizer imports from RU +58.6% H1 2026 — flows redirected.
History is accumulating since launch — a chart appears once enough daily readings pile up.
| Period | % YoY (China imports of Russian fertilizer; ~5 Mt, $1.6bn +12%) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | 0 |
| 2025 | 9 | — |
| 2026-H1 | 58.6 | 0 |
| current (RCI) | 15 | 0 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Interfax/GACC — 2025 Russian fertilizer to China +6% to ~5 Mt · GACC — potash to China +9% to 4.6 Mt (2025)