Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.
Idle refinery capacity (strikes/repairs) currently reads 55.2 % of primary refining, mapping to a stress of 100/100 — critical pressure, near the worst end of its calibrated range.
Across the tracked period the stress has risen by 40.9 points.
The value is sourced via independent monitoring; confidence — medium. How it is derived: Capacity-weighted share of idle refineries computed from a manual registry (see /refineries/), tracked via NASA FIRMS fires, Reuters/KSE reports on specific plants and industry data.
| Date | Value | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | 55.2 % of primary refining | 100 |
| 2026-09-13 | 60.5 % of primary refining | 100 |
| 2026-09-12 | 63.6 % of primary refining | 100 |
| 2026-09-05 | 16.7 % of primary refining | 62 |
| 2026-08-31 | 16 % of primary refining | 59 |
| Period | % of refining capacity offline (more than 20%) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 (peak) | 20 | 77 |
| 2026-05 | 40 | 100 |
| 2026-07 | 42.7 | 100 |
| 2026-07 | 45 | 100 |
| current (RCI auto) | 55.2 | 100 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: 2025-2026 Russian fuel crisis — 'more than 20%' capacity offline at peak · Interfax-Ukraine — nearly 40% of refining capacity offline as of May 2026