Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.
Steel exports (EU closed) currently reads 58 % of 2021, mapping to a stress of 64/100 — elevated pressure, toward the crisis end of its scale.
Across the tracked period the stress has held roughly flat (+0.0 pts).
The value is sourced via mirror-trade data; confidence — medium. How it is derived: Mirror imports of recipient countries; Russian customs opaque.
History is accumulating since launch — a chart appears once enough daily readings pile up.
| Period | mln t (steel exports) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 33.7 | 0 |
| 2022 | 22 | 49 |
| 2023 | 22.7 | 45 |
| 2024 | 20.2 | 60 |
| 2025 | 24 | 38 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Ruslom/Морвести — 2021 baseline (2024 20.2 Mt = -40% vs 2021) · axillc — 'transitional 2022' level (below 2025 ≈24 Mt)