Stress is just how far today's value sits between “norm” (0) and “crisis” (100) — a fixed calibrated scale, not a verdict. It measures pressure, not a prediction of collapse.
ESPO-to-Brent discount currently reads 10.25 $/bbl, mapping to a stress of 1/100 — well inside the calm zone.
Across the tracked period the stress has eased by 38.6 points. Day-over-day: -15.3 pts.
The value is sourced via official statistics; confidence — medium. How it is derived: CREA (auto): Brent minus the realized ESPO price to China — usually about half the Urals discount.
| Date | Value | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | 10.25 $/bbl | 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | 14.08 $/bbl | 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | 16.97 $/bbl | 28 |
| 2026-11-03 | 18.18 $/bbl | 33 |
| 2026-11-02 | 21.85 $/bbl | 47 |
| 2026-11-01 | 21.54 $/bbl | 46 |
| 2026-10-31 | 22.46 $/bbl | 50 |
| 2026-10-30 | 22.81 $/bbl | 51 |
| 2026-10-29 | 22.42 $/bbl | 50 |
| 2026-10-28 | 22.26 $/bbl | 49 |
| 2026-10-27 | 28.06 $/bbl | 72 |
| 2026-10-26 | 31.01 $/bbl | 84 |