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Data sources & method

Every indicator, its data type, method and first source — for full transparency. ● measured = official/independent/mirror statistics; ◐ expert estimate = a bespoke 0–100 judgement.

Extractive industry

IndicatorTypeMethodSources
Coal exports (volume)● measuredofficial dataCREA/таможни партнёров
Coal output● measuredofficial dataРосстат/ЦДУ ТЭК
Crude output (vs OPEC+ quota)● measuredofficial dataОПЕК/МЭА
Diamond sales (Alrosa sanctions)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateKimberley/OSINT
Gas output● measuredofficial dataГазпром/Росстат
Gold's role in sanctions evasion◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT
Idle/mothballed well stock◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT/отраслевые
Iron ore output● measuredofficial dataРосстат
LNG exports (under sanctions)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateKSE/OSINT
Metals/ore exports (EU closed)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT
Pipeline gas exports to EU● measuredofficial dataENTSOG/Bruegel
Pipeline gas price to China● measuredofficial dataМинэкономразвития (через The Insider)
Seaborne crude exports● measuredofficial dataCREA tracker
Share of loss-making coal firms◐ expert estimateexpert estimateМинэнерго/отраслевые

Manufacturing

IndicatorTypeMethodSources
Aviation component shortage◐ expert estimateexpert estimateReuters
Chemicals output● measuredofficial dataРосстат
Civil aircraft output vs plan◐ expert estimateexpert estimateMoscow Times · re:Russia
Civil shipbuilding order failures◐ expert estimateexpert estimateMoscow Times
Civilian machinery (ex-defense)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateBOFIT · re:Russia
Crude steel output● measuredindependent trackerWorldSteel · Moscow Times (15-летний минимум) · Росстат
Dependence on imported machine tools/CNC● measuredindependent trackerTufts Fletcher · Odessa Journal (СВР)
Dependence on imported specialty chemicalsproxy estimateKSE Institute · Bruegel
Domestic microelectronics lag (node)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateCSIS
Domestic steel demand● measuredindependent trackerRealist/Severstal · SteelRadar
Fertilizer exports to China (mirror)● measuredmirror statsTASS (по данным GACC) · Fertilizer Daily
Fuel availability at stations (crowdsourced)● measuredindependent trackerГдеБенз (gdebenz.ru) · Региональные мониторинги АЗС
Gasoline import share◐ expert estimatemodel forecastКоммерсантъ
Ice-class LNG tanker shortage● measuredindependent trackerKSE Institute · Reuters
Idle refinery capacity (strikes/repairs)● measuredindependent trackerKSE Institute — Refinery Tracker · Reuters · NASA FIRMS
Import of critical microchips (evasion)● measuredindependent trackerKSE CHP Tracker Q2 2026 · CEPA
LME/logistics limits (Al, Ni)● measuredindependent trackerLME · Reuters
Light & food industry● measuredofficial dataРосстат · BOFIT
Machinery & equipment outputproxy estimateРосстат · BOFIT · ЦМАКП · Tebiz Group
New car sales (market)● measuredindependent trackerMoscow Times (АЕБ)
Non-ferrous exports (shift to Asia)● measuredmirror statsGACC КНР · UN Comtrade
Non-ferrous metals output● measuredofficial dataРосстат · Bloomberg
Passenger car output● measuredindependent trackerАвтостат/TASS · Realnoe Vremya
Position in global fertilizer market◐ expert estimateexpert estimateFertilizer Daily · IFA
Premium for war tech from China● measuredindependent trackerKSE (China premium, Q2 2026)
Primary oil refining● measuredindependent trackerKSE Oil Tracker · Reuters Energy · Росстат/ЦДУ ТЭК
Real localization (ex-Chinese SKD)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateMoscow Times
Refinery catalyst/equipment shortage◐ expert estimateexpert estimateRUSI · Reuters
Sawn timber output● measuredindependent trackerWood Central · Global Wood Markets · Рослесхоз
Severity of fuel crisis◐ expert estimateexpert estimateMoscow Times · Al Jazeera · СПбМТСБ (оптовые цены)
Share of timber firms at collapse risk● measuredindependent trackerWood Central (50% под угрозой) · Moscow Times
Steel exports (EU closed)● measuredmirror statsUN Comtrade / таможни · SteelRadar
Steelmakers' financial health● measuredofficial dataCharter97 (отчётность) · United24
Timber/pulp exports (EU closed)● measuredmirror statsGACC КНР · Global Wood Markets
Wholesale fuel prices (SPIMEX)● measuredindependent trackerСПбМТСБ

Agriculture & food

IndicatorTypeMethodSources
Farm diesel availability● measuredofficial dataAl Jazeera/Moscow Times
Farm machinery wear (parts shortage)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT
Farm profitability● measuredindependent trackerИКАР · СовЭкон · Reuters
Grain export logistics◐ expert estimateexpert estimateЭкспертная оценка · Reuters
Grain export shortfall (estimate)◐ expert estimatemodel forecastПроЗерно
Grain exports (duties, logistics)● measuredofficial dataOSINT/таможни
Grain harvest forecast● measuredofficial dataИКАР/СовЭкон
Livestock & poultry output● measuredofficial dataРосстат
Oilseeds & sugar output◐ expert estimateexpert estimateСовЭкон
Risk to the harvest (fuel/weather)● measuredofficial dataMoscow Times
Share of loss-making farms● measuredofficial dataРосстат
Shortage of vet drugs/genetics (imports)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT
Wheat price, class 3 (Centre)● measuredindependent trackerПроЗерно
Winter sowing plan for the 2027 crop● measuredofficial dataМинсельхоз / Банк России

Transport & logistics

IndicatorTypeMethodSources
Airport closures ("Kovyor" plan)● measuredindependent trackerForbes / Росавиация
Airworthiness of the fleet◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT/Росавиация
Border-crossing/import-logistics congestion◐ expert estimateexpert estimateReuters
Disruption of export terminals◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT/судовой трекинг
Eastern Polygon congestion◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT
Oil/gas pipeline load to the East◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT
Passenger traffic (closed southern airports)● measuredofficial dataРосавиация
Pipeline damage/sabotage◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT
RZD network freight loading● measuredofficial dataРЖД
Rising aviation incidents/failures● measuredindependent trackerASN / OSINT · Moscow Times
Sea port throughput● measuredofficial dataАСОП
Shadow-fleet tanker insurance rates● measuredindependent trackerKSE Institute · Lloyd's List / Reuters

Power & utilities

IndicatorTypeMethodSources
Daily grid power consumption (activity proxy)● measuredofficial dataСО ЕЭС
Power-sector accident rate (wear)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT/региональные
Utility network wear / heating failures● measuredofficial dataрегиональный мониторинг
Utility tariff growth vs incomes● measuredofficial dataРосстат

Finance & macro

IndicatorTypeMethodSources
Bad loans & over-indebtednessproxy estimateЦБ РФ · BOFIT
Bank debt to CBR (repo auctions)proxy estimateЦБ РФ (операции)
Bank lending to the economyproxy estimateЦБ РФ (ДКП) · BOFIT
Banking/financial contagion (domino node)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateCharter97 (кризис у банков) · Riddle (Burn Warehouses, Crash Banks?)
Budget payouts to oil firms (damper + reverse excise)● measuredofficial dataМинфин РФ (через Moscow Times) · Независимая газета
Budget revenue-to-plan gap● measuredindependent trackerМинфин РФ · Re:Russia
Business-activity index (RSBI/services PMI)● measuredindependent trackerS&P Global PMI · RSBI (Опора/ПСБ)
CBR key rate● measuredofficial dataЦБ РФ
CNY/RUB rate (CBR)● measuredofficial dataЦБ РФ
Corporate bankruptcies count● measuredindependent trackerMoscow Times (debt boom) · Intellinews (17 компаний) · ЦМАКП
Corporate defaults / restructurings◐ expert estimateexpert estimateThe Bell · BOFIT
Debt servicing (share of budget)● measuredofficial dataЗакон о бюджете 2026 / Счётная палата · OSW
Deficit: plan vs actual gap● measuredindependent trackerReuters/Минфин
Deposit-flight risk (latent)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateThe Bell
E-commerce logistics resilience◐ expert estimateexpert estimateFINCHANNEL
Federal budget deficit (YTD)● measuredindependent trackerМинфин РФ · BOFIT
Federal budget spending (annual)● measuredofficial dataЗакон о бюджете 2026 / BOFIT
Firms behind on taxes● measuredindependent trackerNV (по данным ФНС)
Fixed-capital investment● measuredofficial dataРосстат · ЦМАКП
Food inflation● measuredofficial dataРосстат
Inflation (YoY)● measuredofficial dataРосстат · FRED (World Bank/OECD)
Inter-firm non-payments & receivables◐ expert estimateexpert estimateThe Bell · Intellinews
Interbank stress / RUONIAproxy estimateЦБ РФ (RUONIA)
International reserves (accessible part)● measuredofficial dataЦБ РФ
Liquid part of the NWF● measuredofficial dataМинфин РФ (ФНБ) · The Insider
MOEX index (IMOEX)● measuredofficial dataMOEX ISS
Marketplace disruption (warehouse strikes)● measuredindependent trackerWikipedia (strikes on Wildberries) · PBS
Marketplace market-cap crash● measuredindependent trackerEuromaidan Press
Money supply M2● measuredofficial dataЦБ РФ
NWF liquid depletion pace◐ expert estimatemodel forecastRe:Russia · SZRU оценка
Non-oil-and-gas deficit● measuredindependent trackerBOFIT · OSW
OFZ 10-year yield● measuredofficial dataMOEX ISS
OFZ placement-plan fulfillment● measuredofficial dataМинфин (аукционы ОФЗ) · ЦБ РФ
Oil & gas budget revenue● measuredofficial dataМинфин РФ · Meduza
Outflow from banks (cash withdrawals)● measuredindependent trackerPravda EN (bank cash outflow)
Russian state debt (federal)● measuredofficial dataСчётная палата / Ведомости · Минфин РФ
Subsidized-program burden◐ expert estimateexpert estimateBOFIT
USD/RUB rate (CBR)● measuredofficial dataЦБ РФ
VTB: share crash & marketplace ties● measuredindependent trackerThe Moscow Times (ВТБ ниже номинала) · UNN

Foreign trade & sanctions

IndicatorTypeMethodSources
Brent crude● measuredofficial dataEIA/рынок
Competition for China's oil market (Africa/Brazil vs Russia)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateBloomberg / OilPrice
Current-account balance● measuredofficial dataЦБ РФ
Dependence on yuan/China settlements● measuredindependent trackerBOFIT · Bruegel
ESPO-to-Brent discount● measuredofficial dataCREA
Fossil-fuel export revenue (weekly)● measuredofficial dataCREA tracker
Imports from China (mirror stats)● measuredofficial dataGACC КНР
Lengthening cross-border payments● measuredindependent trackerReuters · Bloomberg
Net capital outflow● measuredofficial dataЦБ РФ (платёжный баланс)
New sanctions packages/listings● measuredofficial dataEU/OFAC/UK
Non-energy non-commodity exports◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT/таможни
Parallel-import markup/failures◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOSINT
Re-export via Turkey/Central Asia● measuredofficial dataKSE/таможни
Revenue from crude to China (ESPO)● measuredofficial dataCREA tracker
Russian crude price to China (ESPO)● measuredofficial dataCREA
Seaborne crude exports to China (ESPO)● measuredofficial dataCREA tracker
Shadow-fleet share of oil exports● measuredofficial dataKSE/CREA
Stuck export revenue (rupees/yuan)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateReuters · The Bell
Third-country bank payment refusals● measuredofficial dataReuters/Bloomberg
Tighter export controls (dual-use)● measuredofficial dataBIS/EU
Trade concentration on China● measuredmirror statsGACC КНР · Silk Road Briefing
Urals crude (with discount)● measuredofficial dataCREA (реализ., Индия+Турция)
Urals tax price (MinEcon)● measuredofficial dataМинэкономразвития
Urals-to-Brent discount● measuredofficial dataCREA

Military capacity

IndicatorTypeMethodSources
Ammunition supply (incl. DPRK/Iran)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateRUSI/OSINT
Artillery-barrel storage remaining● measuredofficial dataIISS/Jompy
Aviation losses vs replacement◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOryx
Confirmed irrecoverable personnel losses● measuredindependent trackerMediazona (обновляемый счёт) · Kyiv Independent (239k)
Contract sign-up payments (median)● measuredofficial dataрегиональные указы
Defense-industry bottlenecks◐ expert estimateexpert estimateRUSI/OSINT
New tank output vs losses◐ expert estimateexpert estimateRUSI/OSINT
Precision-missile output (chip shortage)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateRUSI/CAR
Recruitment vs losses gap◐ expert estimateexpert estimateISW/OSINT
Security bloc share of spending● measuredofficial dataМинфин/BOFIT
Soviet armor stockpile remaining● measuredofficial dataIISS/Covert Cabal
Territorial change (DeepState)● measuredindependent trackerDeepState · ISW
Total recruitment & payout spending◐ expert estimateexpert estimateRe:Russia · Current Time

Society, regions, demography

IndicatorTypeMethodSources
Birth rate● measuredofficial dataРосстат
Deficit of draft/working-age men◐ expert estimateexpert estimatere:Russia
Excess mortality (combat + indirect)● measuredindependent trackerMeduza / демографы · Re:Russia
Household debt burden / arrears◐ expert estimateexpert estimateЦБ/НБКИ
Infrastructure accident rate (grid, utilities)● measuredindependent trackerРегиональный мониторинг · Novaya Gazeta Europe
Labor shortage● measuredofficial dataСВР/Bloomberg/HH
Level of repression (tension proxy)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOVD-Info/Мемориал
Migration tension / labor gap◐ expert estimateexpert estimateForeign Policy/МВД
Mobile-internet shutdowns● measuredindependent trackerOONI · На связи / мониторинги
Natural population decline● measuredofficial dataРосстат
Organised domestic tour sales● measuredindependent trackerРСТ / Интерфакс
Overdue wage arrears● measuredofficial dataРосстат
Protest / strike activity◐ expert estimateexpert estimateOVD-Info
Real disposable incomes◐ expert estimateexpert estimateРосстат
Runet degradation (blocks, throttling)◐ expert estimateexpert estimateРоскомсвобода
Share of regions in deficit◐ expert estimateexpert estimateКазначейство
Signs of elite fracture◐ expert estimateexpert estimatere:Russia/эксперты
Skilled-worker outflow (cumulative)◐ expert estimateexpert estimatere:Russia/Bush
Wage delays / utility debts in regions◐ expert estimateexpert estimateрегиональный мониторинг

Construction & real estate

IndicatorTypeMethodSources
Cement demand & outputproxy estimateРосстат · СМПРО / Tebiz Group
Commercial real estate◐ expert estimateexpert estimateЭкспертная оценка
Developer financial distress● measuredindependent trackerЦМАКП · The Bell
Housing commissioning (YoY)● measuredofficial dataРосстат · ДОМ.РФ
Mortgage issuance (YoY)● measuredofficial dataБанк России · ДОМ.РФ
Unsold new-build inventory● measuredindependent trackerДОМ.РФ · Отраслевые аналитики
Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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