Defence spending has grown ~2.7x since 2023, while health and education barely move. The year-by-year picture, who pays through taxes, and what the economy does meanwhile - every figure with its source and the arithmetic.
| Year | National defence | Federal deficit |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 6.4 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | 8.9 | 3.5 |
| 2025 | 13.6 | 5.6 |
| 2026 (estimate) | 12.1 / ≈17 | 7.3 |
| 2027 (draft) | 17.1 | 5.5 |
| 2028 (draft) | 16.6 | ≈5 |
| 2029 (draft) | 16.3 | ≈5.4 |
Defence: 2023-2025 - budget law as amended; 2026 - current law (12.1) and the estimate of Bloomberg's sources (almost 17; actual spending is classified); 2027-2029 - draft budget. Deficit: 2023-2025 - outturn, 2026 - MinFin estimate, 2027 - draft, 2028-2029 - The Bell's calculation (1.9% of the MinEcon GDP forecast). · MinFin · MinEcon · Bloomberg · Reuters · Interfax · The Bell
| Item | 2026 | 2027 (draft) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| National defence | 12.1 | 17.15 | +42% |
| Security & law enforcement | 3.91 | 4.29 | +10% |
| Health (federal budget) | 1.9 | 1.82 | −4% |
| Education | 1.75 | 1.78 | +2% |
Nominal figures. With inflation around 7% a ~2% nominal rise is a real-terms cut. Health also gets ~₽5.2 trn via the compulsory-insurance fund (₽7 trn in total). Figures come from press coverage of the draft budget - check them against the MinFin explanatory note. The 2026 defence figure is the law's 12.1; Bloomberg's sources put actual 2026 spending near 17, which would make 2027 roughly flat. · MinFin draft budget 2027-2029 (via Kommersant)