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Russia birth rate, population decline and labour shortage

Births in Russia stand at 1200 k/year, while the natural population decline is 650 k/year. The war adds a male imbalance (58 index 0–100/100 on the stress scale), emigration of skilled workers (700 k people) and a labour shortage of 10 mln people. Charts below show the annual history wherever a public series exists.

Birth rate
1200 k/year
Stress 67/100
Natural population decline
650 k/year
Stress 58/100
Excess mortality (combat + indirect)
62 index 0–100
Stress 60/100

Indicators

Birth rate1200 k/year · 67

Rosstat; births at multi-year lows amid fewer women of fertile age and wartime uncertainty.

Historical context (reconstructed)

1 2201 2401 260k births202320242023: 1 2651 2652024: 1 2221 222
Range: 1222.4–1264.9 k birthsLatest: 1222.4 k birthsPeak: 2024 (59)
Stress over time (0–100)
02550751000–100202320242023: 45452024: 5959
Periodk birthsStress
20231264.945
20241222.459

Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Rosstat — 1,264.9k births (2023) · Rosstat — 1,222.4k births (2024, -3.4%)

Sources: Росстат

Details →
Natural population decline650 k/year · 58

Rosstat; deep natural decline.

Historical context (reconstructed)

-5000500k (natural decline)202320242023: -500-5002024: 596596
Range: -500–596.2 k (natural decline)Latest: 596.2 k (natural decline)Peak: 2024 (49)
Stress over time (0–100)
02550751000–100202320242023: 002024: 4949
Periodk (natural decline)Stress
2023-5000
2024596.249

Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Kommersant/Rosstat — 2023 natural decline (birthrate 8.7/1000) · Rosstat — 2024 natural decline 596.2k

Sources: Росстат

Details →
Excess mortality (combat + indirect)62 index 0–100 · 60

Demographers' estimate of deaths above baseline: combat, alcohol, healthcare decay.

Sources: Meduza / демографы · Re:Russia

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Deficit of draft/working-age men58 index 0–100 · 58

Estimate: combat losses, emigration and evasion thin men 20–45 — army and labor both hit.

Sources: re:Russia

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Labor shortage10 mln people · 82

SVR/Bloomberg/HH: an estimated ~12m worker shortfall.

Sources: СВР/Bloomberg/HH

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Skilled-worker outflow (cumulative)700 k people · 67

re:Russia/Bush Center; emigration not offset.

Sources: re:Russia/Bush

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Migration tension / labor gap56 index 0–100 · 55

Foreign Policy/MVD; labor gap amid anti-migrant policy.

Sources: Foreign Policy/МВД

Details →

Frequently asked questions

What is Russia's birth rate?

Annual births currently read 1200 k/year (stress 67/100). See the annual chart above for the trend.

Is Russia's population shrinking?

Yes: the natural decline (deaths minus births) currently reads 650 k/year, which migration only partly offsets.

How does the war affect Russian demography and labour?

The site tracks the male imbalance (58 index 0–100), emigration of skilled workers (700 k people) and the labour shortage (10 mln people) as war-related pressure on the workforce.

Related pages

Society sectorThe cost of the warTopicsOpen data

All series are published as open data (CC BY 4.0). Download this data

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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