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Daily brief · 2026-09-18

Pressure on the system today

70/100 (0.0)

Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown

22 sec to midnight

Scenario range: Optimistic · no domino 56 · Baseline 70 · Pessimistic · strong domino 72

What moved the most over the day

USD/RUB rate — up на 0.79 CNY/RUB rate — up на 0.523 OFZ 10-year yield — up на 0.479 MOEX index — down на 0.382

Sectors

Military capacity63 Finance & macro61 Construction & real estate59 Manufacturing58 Society, regions, demography57

Refinery / energy events

2026-09-17 Slavneft-YANOS (Yaroslavl) — Night drone strike, fire on site (awaiting confirmation)
2026-09-15 Syzran Refinery — Night drone strike on the refinery (repeat hit)

For a few indicators today, estimated figures were used.

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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