← Back to overview
🌐ENUKRU
Home › Topics › Russia real estate and construction market

Russia real estate and construction market

Russia's construction cycle is cooling under a 14 % key rate: mortgage issuance reads -36 % YoY, unsold new housing 34 months of stock, housing starts -28 % YoY, and developer distress and commercial real estate score 58 and 54 out of 100.

Mortgage issuance (YoY)
-36 % YoY
Stress 77/100
Housing commissioning (YoY)
-28 % YoY
Stress 100/100
Unsold new-build inventory
34 months of stock
Stress 73/100

Indicators

Mortgage issuance (YoY)-36 % YoY · 77

Mortgage lending year on year (CBR/DOM.RF). The collapse after mass subsidised mortgages ended and rates rose is the key demand channel for housing.

Sources: Банк России · ДОМ.РФ

Details →
Housing commissioning (YoY)-28 % YoY · 100

Housing commissioning per Rosstat; official figures diverge from DOM.RF and independent analysts, who see a sharper drop amid costly mortgages and weak demand.

6080100Stress 0–10004.0917.0930.0913.1025.1006.112026-09-04: 47472026-09-05: 472026-09-07: 472026-09-08: 472026-09-09: 472026-09-10: 472026-09-11: 472026-09-12: 472026-09-13: 472026-09-14: 472026-09-15: 472026-09-16: 472026-09-17: 472026-09-18: 472026-09-19: 1001002026-09-20: 1002026-09-21: 1002026-09-22: 1002026-09-23: 1002026-09-24: 1002026-09-26: 1002026-09-27: 1002026-09-28: 1002026-09-29: 1002026-09-30: 1002026-10-01: 1002026-10-02: 1002026-10-03: 1002026-10-04: 1002026-10-05: 1002026-10-06: 1002026-10-07: 1002026-10-08: 1002026-10-09: 1002026-10-10: 1002026-10-11: 1002026-10-12: 1002026-10-13: 1002026-10-14: 1002026-10-15: 1002026-10-16: 1002026-10-17: 1002026-10-18: 1002026-10-19: 1002026-10-20: 1002026-10-21: 1002026-10-22: 1002026-10-23: 1002026-10-24: 1002026-10-25: 1002026-10-26: 1002026-10-27: 1002026-10-28: 1002026-10-29: 1002026-10-30: 1002026-10-31: 1002026-11-01: 1002026-11-02: 1002026-11-03: 1002026-11-04: 1002026-11-05: 1002026-11-06: 100100

Sources: Росстат · ДОМ.РФ

Details →
Unsold new-build inventory34 months of stock · 73

Unsold new-build housing measured in months of current sales (DOM.RF/analysts). A rising overhang means frozen demand and developer risk.

Sources: ДОМ.РФ · Отраслевые аналитики

Details →
Developer financial distress58 index 0–100 · 58

Composite stress index for developers: leverage, escrow coverage, delays and defaults (TSMAKP/The Bell). Rises as sales fall and funding gets dearer.

Sources: ЦМАКП · The Bell

Details →
Commercial real estate55 index 0–100 · 54

Expert gauge of pressure on commercial property (offices, malls, warehouses): rising vacancy and falling rents/prices amid weak demand and costly credit.

Sources: Экспертная оценка

Details →
Cement demand & output-10.7 % YoY · 52

Cement and basic building-materials output and shipments (Rosstat/industry, SMPRO, Tebiz Group) as a proxy for real construction activity.

52.553Stress 0–10004.0917.0930.0913.1025.1006.112026-09-04: 53.353.32026-09-05: 53.32026-09-07: 53.32026-09-08: 53.32026-09-09: 53.32026-09-10: 52.352.32026-09-11: 52.32026-09-12: 52.32026-09-13: 52.32026-09-14: 52.32026-09-15: 52.32026-09-16: 52.32026-09-17: 52.32026-09-18: 52.32026-09-19: 52.32026-09-20: 52.32026-09-21: 52.32026-09-22: 52.32026-09-23: 52.32026-09-24: 52.32026-09-26: 52.32026-09-27: 52.32026-09-28: 52.32026-09-29: 52.32026-09-30: 52.32026-10-01: 52.32026-10-02: 52.32026-10-03: 52.32026-10-04: 52.32026-10-05: 52.32026-10-06: 52.32026-10-07: 52.32026-10-08: 52.32026-10-09: 52.32026-10-10: 52.32026-10-11: 52.32026-10-12: 52.32026-10-13: 52.32026-10-14: 52.32026-10-15: 52.32026-10-16: 52.32026-10-17: 52.32026-10-18: 52.32026-10-19: 52.32026-10-20: 52.32026-10-21: 52.32026-10-22: 52.32026-10-23: 52.32026-10-24: 52.32026-10-25: 52.32026-10-26: 52.32026-10-27: 52.32026-10-28: 52.32026-10-29: 52.32026-10-30: 52.32026-10-31: 52.32026-11-01: 52.32026-11-02: 52.32026-11-03: 52.32026-11-04: 52.32026-11-05: 52.32026-11-06: 52.352.3

Historical context (reconstructed)

-10-9.5-9-8.5% YoY (cement consumption)2025-H120252025-H1: -8.6-8.62025: -10-10
Range: -10–-8.6 % YoY (cement consumption)Latest: -10 % YoY (cement consumption)Peak: 2025 (50)
Stress over time (0–100)
02550751000–1002025-H120252025-H1: 45452025: 5050
Period% YoY (cement consumption)Stress
2025-H1-8.645
2025-1050

Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: CEMROS — H1 2025 cement consumption -8.6% · Forbes — 2025 cement production ~-10%

Sources: Росстат · СМПРО / Tebiz Group

Details →

Frequently asked questions

Is Russia's housing market in crisis?

The signals are mixed-to-negative: mortgage issuance reads -36 % YoY, unsold new housing 34 months of stock and developer distress scores 58/100.

What is happening to commercial real estate in Russia?

The commercial real estate indicator (vacancy and prices) scores 54/100, reflecting weak demand and high financing costs. It is an expert estimate.

How is cement demand?

Cement demand, a proxy for real construction activity, reads -10.7 % YoY (stress 52/100).

Related pages

Construction sectorFinance & macro sectorTopicsOpen data

All series are published as open data (CC BY 4.0). Download this data

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
Found an error or have a suggestion to improve the site? Write to us: russiacollapseindex@gmail.com