Russia's steel industry has lost western export markets under sanctions and now depends on domestic demand and Asian buyers. Latest readings: steel output -6.8 % YoY, exports 58 % of 2021, domestic demand 68 index (2021=100). Every reading is converted to a 0–100 stress score, where 100 is the worst point of the calibrated range.
WorldSteel monthly vs company reports; at a 15-year low.
| Period | mln t (crude steel) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | 6.6 | — |
| 2022-02 | 5.8 | — |
| 2022-03 | 6.6 | — |
| 2022-04 | 6.4 | — |
| 2022-05 | 6.4 | — |
| 2022-06 | 5 | — |
| 2022-07 | 5.5 | — |
| 2022-08 | 5.9 | — |
| 2022-09 | 5.7 | — |
| 2022-10 | 5.8 | — |
| 2022-11 | 5.6 | — |
| 2022-12 | 5.5 | — |
| 2023-01 | 5.8 | — |
| 2023-02 | 5.6 | — |
| 2023-03 | 6.6 | — |
| 2023-04 | 6.4 | — |
| 2023-05 | 6.8 | — |
| 2023-06 | 5.8 | — |
| 2023-07 | 6.3 | — |
| 2023-08 | 6.4 | — |
| 2023-09 | 6.2 | — |
| 2023-10 | 6.3 | — |
| 2023-11 | 6.4 | — |
| 2023-12 | 6 | — |
| 2024-01 | 6.2 | — |
| 2024-02 | 5.7 | — |
| 2024-03 | 6.6 | — |
| 2024-04 | 6.2 | — |
| 2024-05 | 6.3 | — |
| 2024-06 | 6 | — |
| 2024-07 | 6.3 | — |
| 2024-08 | 5.8 | — |
| 2024-09 | 5.6 | — |
| 2024-10 | 5.6 | — |
| 2024-11 | 5.5 | — |
| 2024-12 | 5.7 | — |
| 2025-01 | 6 | — |
| 2025-02 | 5.8 | — |
| 2025-03 | 6.2 | — |
| 2025-04 | 5.8 | — |
| 2025-05 | 5.8 | — |
| 2025-06 | 5.6 | — |
| 2025-07 | 5.7 | — |
| 2025-08 | 5.5 | — |
| 2025-09 | 5.2 | — |
| 2025-10 | 5.3 | — |
| 2025-11 | 5.2 | — |
| 2025-12 | 5.8 | — |
| 2026-01 | 5.5 | — |
| 2026-02 | 5 | — |
| 2026-03 | 5.4 | — |
| 2026-04 | 5 | — |
| 2026-05 | 5.6 | — |
| 2026-06 | 5.6 | — |
| 2026-07 | 5.7 | — |
Published monthly series — real observations, no interpolation. Sources: worldsteel monthly crude-steel press releases 2022-01..2026-07 (55 releases; some months worldsteel (e) estimates)
Sources: WorldSteel · Moscow Times (15-летний минимум) · Росстат
Details →Mirror imports of recipient countries; Russian customs opaque.
| Period | mln t (steel exports) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 33.7 | 0 |
| 2022 | 22 | 49 |
| 2023 | 22.7 | 45 |
| 2024 | 20.2 | 60 |
| 2025 | 24 | 38 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Ruslom/Морвести — 2021 baseline (2024 20.2 Mt = -40% vs 2021) · axillc — 'transitional 2022' level (below 2025 ≈24 Mt)
Sources: UN Comtrade / таможни · SteelRadar
Details →Severstal data: demand near 2011 low as construction and machinery shrink.
| Period | mln t (steel-product consumption) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 44 | 0 |
| 2022 | 43.3 | 0 |
| 2023 | 46.3 | 0 |
| 2024 | 43.7 | 0 |
| 2025 | 38 | 22 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Russian steel consumption (Metalinfo/Severstal/SteelOrbis/TASS)
Sources: Realist/Severstal · SteelRadar
Details →IFRS reports: Severstal profit down ~370x, NLMK/MMK sharply lower.
Sources: Charter97 (отчётность) · United24
Details →Rosstat; held up by aluminium/nickel exported around sanctions.
| Period | % YoY (Nornickel average of Cu -2%, Ni -5%) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -3.5 | 36 |
| 2025 | 1.7 | — |
| 2026-Q1 | -10 | — |
Proxy series (not the exact index). Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Nornickel 2023: copper -2%, nickel -5% (largest producer proxy) · Rosstat — 'metal ores mining' +1.7% in Jan–Dec 2025 (broader than non-ferrous metals)
Sources: Росстат · Bloomberg
Details →LME ban on Russian metal and logistics premiums from exchange notices.
Sources: LME · Reuters
Details →The site's steel-output indicator currently reads -6.8 % YoY (stress 40/100). The chart above shows the annual history behind that figure.
Steel exports currently read 58 % of 2021 (stress 64/100). Sanctions on Russian metals and costly logistics weigh on export volumes.
Three forces: sanctions closing western markets, high interest rates (key rate 14 %) cooling construction and machinery demand (domestic demand index 68 index (2021=100)), and thinner profits (70 index 0–100).
All series are published as open data (CC BY 4.0). Download this data