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Daily brief · 2026-10-07

Pressure on the system today

70/100 (+0.5)

Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown

21 sec to midnight

Scenario range: Optimistic · no domino 56 · Baseline 70 · Pessimistic · strong domino 74

What moved the most over the day

ESPO-to-Brent discount — up на 1.133 Urals-to-Brent discount — up на 0.977 MOEX index — up на 0.177 OFZ 10-year yield — down на 0.184

Sectors

Construction & real estate67 Military capacity65 Manufacturing58 Finance & macro57 Extractive industry57

Refinery / energy events

2026-10-07 Moscow Refinery (Kapotnya) — Drone strike on Moscow Refinery (Kapotnya)
2026-10-07 Ryazan Refinery (RNPK) — Drone strike on Ryazan Refinery
2026-10-04 Orsknefteorgsintez (Orsk) — Drone strike on refinery
2026-10-04 LUKOIL-Permnefteorgsintez — Drone strike on refinery

For a few indicators today, estimated figures were used.

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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