Home › Daily briefs › 2026-09-21

Daily brief · 2026-09-21

Pressure on the system today

70/100 (0.0)

Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown

22 sec to midnight

Scenario range: Optimistic · no domino 56 · Baseline 70 · Pessimistic · strong domino 73

What moved the most over the day

Fossil-fuel export revenue — down на 17.80 Russian crude price to China — down на 16.60 Seaborne crude exports — down на 6.70 Territorial change — up на 2.963 Pipeline gas exports to EU — up на 1.088 MOEX index — down на 1.082 OFZ 10-year yield — down на 0.378

Sectors

Construction & real estate67 Military capacity64 Finance & macro60 Manufacturing58 Transport & logistics53

Refinery / energy events

2026-09-17 Slavneft-YANOS (Yaroslavl) — Night drone strike, fire on site (awaiting confirmation)
2026-09-15 Syzran Refinery — Night drone strike on the refinery (repeat hit)

For a few indicators today, estimated figures were used.

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
Found an error or have a suggestion to improve the site? Write to us: russiacollapseindex@gmail.com