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Daily brief · 2026-09-23

Pressure on the system today

70/100 (0.0)

Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown

22 sec to midnight

Scenario range: Optimistic · no domino 56 · Baseline 70 · Pessimistic · strong domino 73

What moved the most over the day

Seaborne crude exports — down на 3.30 MOEX index — down на 2.480 OFZ 10-year yield — up на 1.581 Territorial change — up на 1.465 Pipeline gas exports to EU — up на 0.688 CNY/RUB rate — down на 0.322 USD/RUB rate — down на 0.18

Sectors

Construction & real estate67 Military capacity65 Finance & macro60 Manufacturing58 Transport & logistics53

Refinery / energy events

2026-09-17 Slavneft-YANOS (Yaroslavl) — Night drone strike, fire on site (awaiting confirmation)

For a few indicators today, estimated figures were used.

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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