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Daily brief · 2026-10-15

Pressure on the system today

71/100 (0.0)

Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown

19 sec to midnight

Scenario range: Optimistic · no domino 55 · Baseline 71 · Pessimistic · strong domino 75

What moved the most over the day

ESPO-to-Brent discount — up на 2.849 Urals-to-Brent discount — up на 2.381 CNY/RUB rate — down на 0.521 MOEX index — up на 0.574 USD/RUB rate — down на 0.48 OFZ 10-year yield — up на 0.182

Sectors

Construction & real estate67 Military capacity66 Finance & macro58 Manufacturing58 Society, regions, demography53

Refinery / energy events

2026-10-09 Omsk Refinery — Drone strike on Omsk Refinery
2026-10-08 Moscow Refinery (Kapotnya) — Drone strike on Moscow Refinery (Kapotnya)
2026-10-08 Ryazan Refinery (RNPK) — Drone strike on Ryazan Refinery

For a few indicators today, estimated figures were used.

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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