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Daily brief · 2026-10-23

Pressure on the system today
71/100 (+0.3)
Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown
19 sec to midnight

Scenario range: Optimistic · no domino 56 · Baseline 71 · Pessimistic · strong domino 75

What moved the most over the day

ESPO-to-Brent discount — up на 4.769Urals-to-Brent discount — up на 3.996MOEX index — down на 2.569Confirmed irrecoverable personnel losses — up на 2.373CNY/RUB rate — down на 1.315USD/RUB rate — down на 1.21

Sectors

Construction & real estate67Military capacity66Finance & macro58Manufacturing58Society, regions, demography53

Refinery / energy events

For a few indicators today, estimated figures were used.

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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