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Daily brief · 2026-09-30

Pressure on the system today
70/100 (-0.2)
Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown
22 sec to midnight

Scenario range: Optimistic · no domino 56 · Baseline 70 · Pessimistic · strong domino 73

What moved the most over the day

Seaborne crude exports — down на 15.019ESPO-to-Brent discount — down на 13.129Urals-to-Brent discount — down на 12.967Seaborne crude exports to China — up на 8.343Revenue from crude to China — up на 1.740MOEX index — down на 1.482Urals crude — up на 0.517CNY/RUB rate — up на 0.222

Sectors

Construction & real estate67Military capacity65Finance & macro60Manufacturing58Extractive industry54

Refinery / energy events

nothing notable

For a few indicators today, estimated figures were used.

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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