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Daily brief · 2026-10-02

Pressure on the system today
70/100 (+0.2)
Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown
22 sec to midnight

Scenario range: Optimistic · no domino 55 · Baseline 70 · Pessimistic · strong domino 74

What moved the most over the day

ESPO-to-Brent discount — up на 18.539Seaborne crude exports — down на 15.08Urals-to-Brent discount — up на 14.573Seaborne crude exports to China — up на 1.749Urals crude — down на 1.513MOEX index — down на 1.182CNY/RUB rate — down на 1.020

Sectors

Construction & real estate67Military capacity65Finance & macro60Manufacturing58Society, regions, demography53

Refinery / energy events

nothing notable

For a few indicators today, estimated figures were used.

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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