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Daily brief · 2026-10-05

Pressure on the system today

70/100 (0.0)

Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown

21 sec to midnight

Scenario range: Optimistic · no domino 56 · Baseline 70 · Pessimistic · strong domino 74

What moved the most over the day

ESPO-to-Brent discount — up на 6.035 Revenue from crude to China — up на 5.013 Urals-to-Brent discount — up на 3.978 Seaborne crude exports to China — up на 2.552 Seaborne crude exports — up на 1.651 MOEX index — down на 1.379 OFZ 10-year yield — up на 0.684

Sectors

Construction & real estate67 Military capacity65 Manufacturing58 Extractive industry57 Finance & macro57

Refinery / energy events

2026-10-04 Orsknefteorgsintez (Orsk) — Drone strike on refinery
2026-10-04 LUKOIL-Permnefteorgsintez — Drone strike on refinery

For a few indicators today, estimated figures were used.

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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