Russia's export infrastructure is under strain from drone strikes, sanctions and eastward rerouting. Eastern pipelines run at 65 % of Power of Siberia etc. capacity, rail loading is -1.2 % YoY, port throughput -7 % YoY. Reported pipeline incidents score 40 index 0–100 on the stress scale, and refinery downtime 55.2 % of primary refining.
Estimate of eastern pipeline utilization; limited alternative to lost EU routes.
Sources: OSINT
Details →Capacity-weighted share of idle refineries computed from a manual registry (see /refineries/), tracked via NASA FIRMS fires, Reuters/KSE reports on specific plants and industry data.
| Period | % of refining capacity offline (more than 20%) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 (peak) | 20 | 77 |
| 2026-05 | 40 | 100 |
| 2026-07 | 42.7 | 100 |
| 2026-07 | 45 | 100 |
| current (RCI auto) | 55.2 | 100 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: 2025-2026 Russian fuel crisis — 'more than 20%' capacity offline at peak · Interfax-Ukraine — nearly 40% of refining capacity offline as of May 2026
Sources: KSE Institute — Refinery Tracker · Reuters · NASA FIRMS
Details →RZD monthly loading; a strong independent proxy for the civilian economy.
| Period | mln t (network loading) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-03 | 106.7 | — |
| 2022-04 | 102.4 | — |
| 2022-05 | 104.6 | — |
| 2022-06 | 100 | — |
| 2022-07 | 102.1 | — |
| 2022-08 | 103.6 | — |
| 2022-09 | 100.8 | — |
| 2022-10 | 107 | — |
| 2022-11 | 103.5 | — |
| 2023-01 | 99.2 | — |
| 2023-03 | 109.1 | — |
| 2023-06 | 101.4 | — |
| 2023-07 | 103.1 | — |
| 2023-08 | 103.7 | — |
| 2023-09 | 100.9 | — |
| 2023-10 | 103.3 | — |
| 2024-01 | 94.8 | — |
| 2024-02 | 95.9 | — |
| 2024-03 | 105.3 | — |
| 2024-04 | 101.7 | — |
| 2024-05 | 104.4 | — |
| 2024-06 | 98.3 | — |
| 2024-07 | 97.4 | — |
| 2024-08 | 97.5 | — |
| 2024-09 | 94.5 | — |
| 2024-10 | 96.9 | — |
| 2024-11 | 95.6 | — |
| 2025-01 | 93.1 | — |
| 2025-02 | 87 | — |
| 2025-03 | 97.7 | — |
| 2025-04 | 92.9 | — |
| 2025-05 | 94.6 | — |
| 2025-06 | 89.3 | — |
| 2025-07 | 92.1 | — |
| 2025-08 | 92.2 | — |
| 2025-09 | 91.4 | — |
| 2025-10 | 96.9 | — |
| 2025-11 | 92.2 | — |
| 2025-12 | 92.1 | — |
| 2026-01 | 89.3 | — |
| 2026-03 | 95.6 | — |
| 2026-04 | 94.7 | — |
| 2026-05 | 95 | — |
Published monthly series — real observations, no interpolation. Sources: RZD monthly loading press releases company.rzd.ru 2022-2026 (months with a published headline volume)
Sources: РЖД
Details →ASOP; softening on trade reconfiguration and sanctions.
| Period | mln t (seaport cargo turnover) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 888 | — |
| 2025-09 | 653.4 | 25 |
| 2025 | 884.5 | 14 |
| current (RCI) | -3 | 29 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: TAdviser/ASOP — 2024 seaport turnover 888 mln t · Logistics.ru/ASOP — Jan–Sep 2025 turnover -2.3% to 653.4 mln t
Sources: АСОП
Details →OSINT/ship tracking on strikes, outages and insurer refusals at terminals.
Sources: OSINT/судовой трекинг
Details →The site scores reported pipeline incidents from open-source reports; the damage index currently reads 40 index 0–100 (stress 40/100). It is an incident-frequency signal, not an official statistic.
Eastern pipelines currently run at 65 % of Power of Siberia etc. capacity; they only partly replace routes lost to Europe.
Rail loading reads -1.2 % YoY and port throughput -7 % YoY; the eastern rail corridor bottleneck scores 65 index 0–100 on the stress scale.
All series are published as open data (CC BY 4.0). Download this data