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Daily brief · 2026-10-01

Pressure on the system today
70/100 (0.0)
Estimated proximity to systemic breakdown
22 sec to midnight

Scenario range: Optimistic · no domino 56 · Baseline 70 · Pessimistic · strong domino 73

What moved the most over the day

Urals-to-Brent discount — down на 9.158Revenue from crude to China — up на 8.348ESPO-to-Brent discount — down на 8.221Seaborne crude exports to China — up на 4.248Seaborne crude exports — up на 4.123USD/RUB rate — down на 1.87Urals crude — down на 1.815CNY/RUB rate — down на 1.521

Sectors

Construction & real estate67Military capacity65Finance & macro60Manufacturing58Extractive industry54

Refinery / energy events

nothing notable

For a few indicators today, estimated figures were used.

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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