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Russia public debt, budget deficit and reserves

Russia's federal debt is about 37.5 ₽ trn; servicing it takes 8.9 % of spending. The cumulative federal deficit this year is 5.19 ₽ trn, and the liquid part of the National Wealth Fund is down to 3.8 ₽ trn. Oil-and-gas revenue runs at 452 ₽ bn/mo while the budget pays oil companies 403.7 ₽ bn/mo through the fuel damper and reverse excise.

Russian state debt (federal)
37.5 ₽ trn
Stress 25/100
Debt servicing (share of budget)
8.9 % of spending
Stress 26/100
Federal budget deficit (YTD)
5.19 ₽ trn
Stress 65/100

Indicators

Russian state debt (federal)37.5 ₽ trn · 25

Audit Chamber: +6.8% in H1 2026 to RUB 37.5tn (~85% domestic, OFZ). ~19% of GDP — low globally but rising fast, and borrowing is dearer and harder.

Sources: Счётная палата / Ведомости · Минфин РФ

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Debt servicing (share of budget)8.9 % of spending · 26

RUB 3.9tn in the 2026 law (~8.9% of spending) — more than health and education combined; H1 already burned 45% of the annual plan. The 'every 4th ruble' claim is overstated (~every 11th), but the share is climbing.

Sources: Закон о бюджете 2026 / Счётная палата · OSW

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Federal budget deficit (YTD)5.19 ₽ trn · 65

Minfin figure cross-checked with BOFIT/OSW; real burden higher off-balance.

7080Stress 0–10031.0816.0930.0912.1025.1006.112026-08-31: 80.880.82026-09-04: 80.82026-09-05: 80.82026-09-07: 80.82026-09-08: 80.82026-09-09: 80.82026-09-10: 72.42026-09-11: 72.42026-09-12: 72.42026-09-13: 72.42026-09-14: 72.42026-09-15: 72.42026-09-16: 72.42026-09-17: 72.42026-09-18: 72.42026-09-19: 81.281.22026-09-20: 81.22026-09-21: 81.22026-09-22: 81.22026-09-23: 81.22026-09-24: 81.22026-09-26: 81.22026-09-27: 81.22026-09-28: 81.22026-09-29: 81.22026-09-30: 81.22026-10-01: 81.22026-10-02: 81.22026-10-03: 81.22026-10-04: 72.52026-10-05: 72.52026-10-06: 72.52026-10-07: 72.52026-10-08: 72.52026-10-09: 72.52026-10-10: 72.52026-10-11: 72.52026-10-12: 64.964.92026-10-13: 64.92026-10-14: 64.92026-10-15: 64.92026-10-16: 64.92026-10-17: 64.92026-10-18: 64.92026-10-19: 64.92026-10-20: 64.92026-10-21: 64.92026-10-22: 64.92026-10-23: 64.92026-10-24: 64.92026-10-25: 64.92026-10-26: 64.92026-10-27: 64.92026-10-28: 64.92026-10-29: 64.92026-10-30: 64.92026-10-31: 64.92026-11-01: 64.92026-11-02: 64.92026-11-03: 64.92026-11-04: 64.92026-11-05: 64.92026-11-06: 64.964.9

Historical context (reconstructed)

246₽ trn2025-9M20252026-012025-9M: 3.83.82025: 5.75.72026-01: 1.71.7
Range: 1.7–5.65 ₽ trnLatest: 1.7 ₽ trnPeak: 2025 (71)
Stress over time (0–100)
02550751000–1002025-9M20252026-012025-9M: 47472025: 71712026-01: 2121
Period₽ trnStress
2025-9M3.7847
20255.6571
2026-011.721

Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Forbes — 9M-2025 deficit 3.78 trn RUB · Full-2025 deficit 5.65 trn (vs 1.17 planned)

Sources: Минфин РФ · BOFIT

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Federal budget spending (annual)44.1 ₽ trn · 28

RUB 44.1tn for 2026 (~18.7% of GDP), a record — war spending keeps outlays high while oil & gas revenue weakens.

Sources: Закон о бюджете 2026 / BOFIT

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Non-oil-and-gas deficit12 % of GDP · 70

BOFIT/OSW estimate of the structural gap between spending and non-oil revenue.

Sources: BOFIT · OSW

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Liquid part of the NWF3.8 ₽ trn · 69

Minfin monthly; the real cushion (yuan+gold), near depletion at current burn.

7075Stress 0–10031.0816.0930.0912.1025.1006.112026-08-31: 77.877.82026-09-04: 77.82026-09-05: 77.82026-09-07: 77.82026-09-08: 77.82026-09-09: 77.82026-09-10: 66.766.72026-09-11: 66.72026-09-12: 66.72026-09-13: 66.72026-09-14: 66.72026-09-15: 66.72026-09-16: 66.72026-09-17: 66.72026-09-18: 66.72026-09-19: 66.72026-09-20: 66.72026-09-21: 66.72026-09-22: 66.72026-09-23: 66.72026-09-24: 66.72026-09-26: 66.72026-09-27: 66.72026-09-28: 66.72026-09-29: 66.72026-09-30: 66.72026-10-01: 66.72026-10-02: 66.72026-10-03: 66.72026-10-04: 66.72026-10-05: 66.72026-10-06: 66.72026-10-07: 66.72026-10-08: 66.72026-10-09: 66.72026-10-10: 66.72026-10-11: 66.72026-10-12: 66.72026-10-13: 66.72026-10-14: 68.92026-10-15: 68.92026-10-16: 68.92026-10-17: 68.92026-10-18: 68.92026-10-19: 68.92026-10-20: 68.92026-10-21: 68.92026-10-22: 68.92026-10-23: 68.92026-10-24: 68.92026-10-25: 68.92026-10-26: 68.92026-10-27: 68.92026-10-28: 68.92026-10-29: 68.92026-10-30: 68.92026-10-31: 68.92026-11-01: 68.92026-11-02: 68.92026-11-03: 68.92026-11-04: 68.92026-11-05: 68.92026-11-06: 68.968.9

Historical context (reconstructed)

3.63.84₽ trn (liquid NWF)2026-012026-072026-01: 4.084.082026-07: 3.613.61
Range: 3.61–4.08 ₽ trn (liquid NWF)Latest: 3.61 ₽ trn (liquid NWF)Peak: 2026-07 (71)
Stress over time (0–100)
02550751000–1002026-012026-072026-01: 66662026-07: 7171
Period₽ trn (liquid NWF)Stress
2026-014.0866
2026-073.6171

Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Minfin — liquid NWF 4.08 trn RUB (1 Jan 2026) · Liquid NWF 3.612 trn RUB (1 Jul 2026)

Sources: Минфин РФ (ФНБ) · The Insider

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NWF liquid depletion pace14 months to zero (est.) · 73

Model forecast: liquid part / average monthly draw at deficit and ~$45 oil.

Sources: Re:Russia · SZRU оценка

Details →
Oil & gas budget revenue452 ₽ bn/mo · 100

Minfin; depends on Urals price and FX, both unfavorable now.

406080100Stress 0–10031.0816.0930.0912.1025.1006.112026-08-31: 83832026-09-04: 832026-09-05: 832026-09-07: 832026-09-08: 832026-09-09: 832026-09-10: 832026-09-11: 832026-09-12: 832026-09-13: 832026-09-14: 832026-09-15: 832026-09-16: 832026-09-17: 832026-09-18: 832026-09-19: 38382026-09-20: 382026-09-21: 382026-09-22: 382026-09-23: 382026-09-24: 382026-09-26: 382026-09-27: 382026-09-28: 382026-09-29: 382026-09-30: 382026-10-01: 382026-10-02: 382026-10-03: 382026-10-04: 812026-10-05: 812026-10-06: 812026-10-07: 812026-10-08: 812026-10-09: 812026-10-10: 812026-10-11: 812026-10-12: 1001002026-10-13: 1002026-10-14: 1002026-10-15: 1002026-10-16: 1002026-10-17: 1002026-10-18: 1002026-10-19: 1002026-10-20: 1002026-10-21: 1002026-10-22: 1002026-10-23: 1002026-10-24: 1002026-10-25: 1002026-10-26: 1002026-10-27: 1002026-10-28: 1002026-10-29: 1002026-10-30: 1002026-10-31: 1002026-11-01: 1002026-11-02: 1002026-11-03: 1002026-11-04: 1002026-11-05: 1002026-11-06: 100100

Historical context (reconstructed)

400500600700₽ bn/mo (6.6 trn over 9M)2025-9M2026-082025-9M: 7337332026-08: 424424
Range: 424–733 ₽ bn/mo (6.6 trn over 9M)Latest: 424 ₽ bn/mo (6.6 trn over 9M)Peak: 2026-08 (100)
Stress over time (0–100)
02550751000–1002025-9M2026-082025-9M: 67672026-08: 100100
Period₽ bn/mo (6.6 trn over 9M)Stress
2025-9M73367
2026-08424100

Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: 9M-2025 oil&gas revenue 6.6 trn (-20.6% YoY) · Aug-2026 oil&gas revenue 424 bn RUB

Sources: Минфин РФ · Meduza

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Budget payouts to oil firms (damper + reverse excise)403.7 ₽ bn/mo · 88

Fuel damper plus reverse excise on crude: money the budget hands back to oil companies; record 403.7 bn RUB in September.

Sources: Минфин РФ (через Moscow Times) · Независимая газета

Details →
Security bloc share of spending41 % of spending · 84

Minfin/BOFIT; militarization of the budget.

758085Stress 0–10031.0816.0930.0912.1025.1006.112026-08-31: 72722026-09-04: 722026-09-05: 722026-09-07: 722026-09-08: 722026-09-09: 722026-09-10: 722026-09-11: 722026-09-12: 722026-09-13: 722026-09-14: 722026-09-15: 722026-09-16: 722026-09-17: 722026-09-18: 722026-09-19: 84842026-09-20: 842026-09-21: 842026-09-22: 842026-09-23: 842026-09-24: 842026-09-26: 842026-09-27: 842026-09-28: 842026-09-29: 842026-09-30: 842026-10-01: 842026-10-02: 842026-10-03: 842026-10-04: 842026-10-05: 842026-10-06: 842026-10-07: 842026-10-08: 842026-10-09: 842026-10-10: 842026-10-11: 842026-10-12: 842026-10-13: 842026-10-14: 842026-10-15: 842026-10-16: 842026-10-17: 842026-10-18: 842026-10-19: 842026-10-20: 842026-10-21: 842026-10-22: 842026-10-23: 842026-10-24: 842026-10-25: 842026-10-26: 842026-10-27: 842026-10-28: 842026-10-29: 842026-10-30: 842026-10-31: 842026-11-01: 842026-11-02: 842026-11-03: 842026-11-04: 842026-11-05: 842026-11-06: 8484

Historical context (reconstructed)

2030₽ trn (defense spending; +41.9%)202420262024: 13.113.12026: 3535
Range: 13.1–35 ₽ trn (defense spending; +41.9%)Latest: 35 ₽ trn (defense spending; +41.9%)Peak: 2026 (60)
Stress over time (0–100)
02550751000–100202420262024: 002026: 6060
Period₽ trn (defense spending; +41.9%)Stress
202413.10
20263560

Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: TAdviser — 2024 defense spending 13.1 trn RUB · DW — 2026 defense+security >1/3 of the budget

Sources: Минфин/BOFIT

Details →

Frequently asked questions

How big is Russia's national debt?

Federal government debt is about 37.5 ₽ trn, and servicing it takes 8.9 % of spending of spending (stress 26/100).

What is Russia's budget deficit?

The cumulative federal deficit this year is 5.19 ₽ trn. Excluding oil and gas the deficit is 12 % of GDP.

How much is left in Russia's National Wealth Fund?

The liquid part of the fund is 3.8 ₽ trn. At the current drawdown pace the model estimate is 14 months to zero (est.).

Related pages

War vs the rest of the budgetBarrel economics and the damperThe cost of the warTopicsOpen data

All series are published as open data (CC BY 4.0). Download this data

Note. Values of manual indicators are the authors' expert estimates from the listed open sources, not measured figures; weights and scale calibration are subjective and open to revision. Automated market series come from public APIs. A prototype, not investment or political advice.
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