Over the latest window, the largest confirmed buyers of Russian fossil fuels were China (€9.4 bn), India (€4.6 bn), Türkiye (€0.9 bn) (CREA Russia Fossil Tracker). Russia's tax price for Urals is 92.08 $/bbl, but the realised price to western-bound buyers is 78.13 $/bbl, and China pays 240.3 $/1,000 m³ for pipeline gas.
CREA tracker of tanker flows; sensitive to refinery strikes and sanctions.
| Period | mln bbl/day (seaborne crude) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-03 | 3.8 | 0 |
| 2025-09 | 3.77 | 0 |
| 2025-10 | 4.11 | 0 |
| 2026-YTD | 3.49 | 9 |
| 2026-07 | 4.21 | 0 |
| 2026-09 | 3.54 | 5 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Kommersant/Forbes — seaborne crude exports Mar 2024 3.8 mln b/d (+5% YoY) · S&P Global — seaborne crude 3.77 mln b/d (Sep 2025)
Sources: CREA tracker
Details →CREA (auto): how much Russian crude ships east to China — the eastern leg's volume, a direct driver of hard-currency revenue.
Sources: CREA tracker
Details →CREA/Argus (auto): Urals = Brent − discount.
| Period | $/bbl | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-01 | 49.48 | 59 |
| 2026-09 | 113.41 | 0 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: TAdviser — Urals $49.48 (Jan 2023) · Minfin — Urals $113.41 (17 Sep 2026)
Sources: CREA (реализ., Индия+Турция)
Details →MinEcon: September 2026 average $92.08/bbl (+62% YoY); Interfax estimate for 1–16 Oct about $104.7.
Sources: Минэкономразвития
Details →CREA (auto): FOB realized value of crude to China — a proxy for the ESPO-dominated eastern price, not the Argus ESPO quote.
Sources: CREA
Details →ENTSOG/Bruegel flows; a lost market and structural blow to Gazprom.
| Period | bcm (pipeline to EU) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 157 | 0 |
| 2022 | 62 | 64 |
| 2023 | 25.1 | 88 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Forbes — Russia supplied 157 bcm to EU in 2021 · Widely reported EU pipeline imports from Russia 2022 (~60 bcm)
Sources: ENTSOG/Bruegel
Details →KSE/OSINT; sanctions on Arctic LNG hamper exports.
| Period | Mt (Russia LNG exports) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 30.3 | — |
| 2023 | 29.3 | — |
| 2024 | 30.5 | — |
| 2026-H1 | 16.7 | — |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: OSW — LNG exports ~29→30.3 Mt y/y (pre-war) · Seala/industry — Russia LNG ~45 bcm / ~30.5 Mt (2023)
Sources: KSE/OSINT
Details →MinEcon data (via The Insider): China paid $240.3 per 1,000 m³ in 2025 vs $406.5 for other far-abroad buyers.
Sources: Минэкономразвития (через The Insider)
Details →CREA tracker; falling revenue tightens the war chest.
| Period | € bn/yr (oil export revenue; >60% via shadow fleet) | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 80 | 0 |
| 2025 | 85.5 | 0 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Obozrevatel/CREA — 2024 oil revenue >€80bn · The Insider — 2025 oil revenue ~€85.5bn (-18%)
Sources: CREA tracker
Details →KSE/CREA: rising share evades the price cap but adds interdiction risk.
| Period | % of seaborne oil exports | Stress |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 60 | 54 |
| 2026-01 | 47.7 | 32 |
Longest defensible public series behind this metric — annual, open sources. Reconstructed context, not the live value; no interpolation. Sources: Obozrevatel/KSE — >60% of seaborne oil via shadow fleet (2024) · NV — 47.7% sanctioned tankers (Baltic, Jan 2026)
Sources: KSE/CREA
Details →Recent CREA data show the largest confirmed buyers as China (€9.4 bn), India (€4.6 bn), Türkiye (€0.9 bn). The Buyers page lists purchases by country and by fuel: crude, products, pipeline oil, LNG, gas and coal.
Russia sells pipeline gas mainly to China and to Turkey and a few south-eastern European countries, and LNG to remaining buyers. China currently pays 240.3 $/1,000 m³ for pipeline gas; EU pipeline exports read 23.3 % of 2021.
Weekly fossil-fuel export revenue reads 5.04 € bn/wk. The budget gets a tax price of 92.08 $/bbl per barrel but pays oil companies 403.7 ₽ bn/mo a month through the damper and reverse excise, so net budget revenue is much lower.
All series are published as open data (CC BY 4.0). Download this data